INDEX OF /RESEARCH
Things I'm Studying
Notes and research at the intersection of evidence, uncertainty, prediction, and action. Canonical article links will point to Pascal Institute as they are published.
| STATUS | TYPE | TITLE / QUESTION |
|---|---|---|
| IN PROGRESS | PROCESS | Outcome vs. Process Brandon Pfaadt and the danger of evaluating a decision by its result. |
| IN PROGRESS | FORECASTING | Forecast Calibration What does “70% likely” actually mean? |
| IN PROGRESS | MARKETS | Market vs. Model The goal isn't perfect prediction. It's estimating reality better than the market. |
| IN PROGRESS | BASEBALL | ABS Challenges When should a player challenge a ball/strike call? |
| IN PROGRESS | VARIANCE | Cal Raleigh Performance, expectations, and variance. |
| CONCEPT | DECISIONS | Beating the Bear Are you better than the alternative, or has randomness made you look better? |
Good decisions can produce bad outcomes. Bad decisions can be rewarded. The work is learning how to tell the difference.
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